The Peanut Tipping & predictions
A transparent Elo rating, built only from this season's 1st-grade results — no betting odds, no external data. It would have called 72% of results right so far (110 decided matches).
Elo is the rating system used in chess and by FiveThirtyEight. Every club starts level on 1500, then trades points after every game based on who won, the margin, and home-ground advantage — beat a stronger side and you gain more; lose to a weaker one and you drop further. A higher number means a stronger club right now — often ahead of where the ladder has caught up.
Round 18 · win probability
Power rankings · Elo vs ladder
| # | Club | Elo | Ladder |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastern Suburbs | 1752 | #1 |
| 2 | Warringah | 1653 | #2 |
| 3 | Sydney University | 1651 | #4 |
| 4 | Gordon | 1644 | #3 |
| 5 | Randwick | 1548 | #5 |
| 6 | Northern Suburbs | 1538 | #7 |
| 7 | Manly | 1458 | #9 |
| 8 | Eastwood | 1445 | #6 |
| 9 | Two Blues | 1418 | #8 |
| 10 | West Harbour | 1357 | #11 |
| 11 | Hunter Wildfires | 1324 | #10 |
| 12 | Southern Districts | 1210 | #12 |
Elo starts every club at 1500 and updates by result & margin with a home-ground edge — computed by us from official 1st-grade results, not a betting product. Method & sources on data & sources.
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Written by a current Shute Shield player